Two Bitcoin blocks, less than seven hours apart, are enough to make any home miner stop scrolling. On November 7, 2026, blocks 974893 and 974930 produced a combined gross reward of 6.27619232 BTC. The story is remarkable. It is also easy to misread as evidence that buying a small miner has suddenly become a reliable way to make money.
The useful question is what those results tell you about your own machine. To answer it, separate three things: the reward recorded on the blockchain, the probability of finding a valid block, and the electricity bill that arrives whether you win or lose. Here is a practical reading of the event, with reproducible calculations instead of a jackpot promise.
Two blocks in 6 hours 50 minutes: what the records show
The block timestamps are 04:51:44 UTC and 11:41:44 UTC on November 7. That is a gap of exactly 6 hours 50 minutes. It measures the interval between two blocks; it does not establish when either miner switched on, how many machines were involved, or how long either participant had previously mined without a reward.
| Block | Timestamp, UTC | Gross reward | Miner payout output |
|---|---|---|---|
| 974893 | Nov 7, 04:51:44 | 3.13350232 BTC | 3.07083228 BTC |
| 974930 | Nov 7, 11:41:44 | 3.14269000 BTC | 3.07983620 BTC |
These amounts come from the coinbase transactions in block 974893 and block 974930. Each gross reward includes the 3.125 BTC subsidy plus transaction fees. The second block contains 1,964 transactions, including its coinbase transaction.
Both coinbase transactions include an output to CKPool's published service address. For the second block, that output is 0.06285380 BTC, exactly 2% of the gross reward. Solo CKPool states a 2% service fee. Its solo service does not distribute small daily rewards among participants: a miner that finds no valid block receives no mining payout from that service.
A reward appearing on-chain is also different from immediately spendable money. Bitcoin's coinbase outputs are subject to a 100-block maturity rule, described in the Bitcoin developer guide. Any dollar equivalent additionally depends on the BTC price and conversion time. Gross block value is not net profit after equipment, electricity, service fees and taxes.
The blockchain does not identify a miner's hardware model or prove that it was operating in a home. A reported hashrate near a manufacturer's specification is not enough to establish that identity. For that reason, we do not label either winning setup as an Avalon Q. The Avalon Q example later in this article is a separately verified power-budget example, not a claim about who won.
Solo mining odds: a rare win does not improve your next attempt
Bitcoin mining repeatedly hashes candidate block headers, seeking a result below the network's target. It is not a queue in which a machine moves closer to its turn after each unsuccessful day. At an unchanged difficulty and hashrate, yesterday's failure does not improve today's chance. A successful hash is possible for a small miner, but possibility and a practical expectation are very different.
For a simple model, expected time per block is approximately difficulty × 2³² ÷ hashrate, with hashrate expressed in hashes per second. The probability of at least one block over a period is approximately 1 − exp(−time ÷ expected time). The table below uses the difficulty recorded in these two blocks: 148,364,561,003,867.4, or about 148.364561 trillion.
| Constant hashrate | Chance of at least one block in 365 days | Expected time per block |
|---|---|---|
| 1.2 TH/s | 0.00594% | About 16,838 years |
| 6.5 TH/s | 0.03216% | About 3,109 years |
| 86.9 TH/s | 0.42914% | About 233 years |
| 500 TH/s | 2.44413% | About 40.4 years |
Illustrative calculation: difficulty is held constant at the November 7 snapshot, uptime is 100%, and the model ignores rejected work, propagation losses and stale blocks. These are hashrate scenarios, not confirmed specifications of the winners. They are not a forecast of next year's network conditions. Use the LeedMiner solo mining calculator to explore different inputs, and check the difficulty timestamp before comparing results.
At 86.9 TH/s, this model gives roughly a 99.57% chance of finding no block during a year. The 233-year average is not a deadline or a promise. Even after one expected waiting time, the chance of at least one success is only about 63.2%; there remains about a 36.8% chance of none. A long unsuccessful run does not create a debt that Bitcoin must repay.
Frequent headlines can coexist with very low individual odds. If many independent miners participate, there are many opportunities for someone to succeed, and the successes attract attention. A feed of winners leaves out the much larger population still waiting. The relevant denominator is all the participating hashrate over time, not the number of exciting screenshots you encounter.
Comparing this with a lottery requires more than comparing jackpot probabilities. You would need equal spending, a consistent time period, prize values, equipment resale assumptions and operating costs. A better decision starts with your own maximum affordable loss and whether you need regular payouts.
Before you plug in: electricity, fees and payout variance
The electricity bill is much easier to estimate than the next winning block. Canaan lists the Avalon Q at 90 TH/s, 1,674 W and 18.6 J/TH, with air cooling. At that rated power, continuous operation for 30 days uses 1,205.28 kWh. This provides a concrete example without assuming that every home miner has the same energy cost.
| Electricity rate | 30-day electricity cost |
|---|---|
| US$0.08/kWh | US$96.42 |
| US$0.12/kWh | US$144.63 |
| US$0.20/kWh | US$241.06 |
These are illustrative electricity-only costs, calculated as 1.674 kW × 24 hours × 30 days × tariff. They exclude additional cooling, networking, taxes, demand charges and equipment costs. Actual wall power varies with operating mode and conditions. Measure consumption and use your all-in local tariff. If you reduce operating hours, the power bill falls, but the number of hashing attempts falls too.
Canaan Avalon Q
90 TH/s · Air cooling · 1,674 W · 18.6 J/TH · In stock at editorial check
At the same fixed difficulty, a machine sustaining 90 TH/s would have about a 0.4444% chance of at least one block over a full year. That illustrates the central budgeting problem: a modest-looking monthly bill can continue while solo revenue remains zero. Do not turn the average block reward into a monthly income assumption for a single household machine.
A conventional pool changes the payout distribution by combining work and allocating rewards under its payout rules. It does not make electricity free or guarantee profitability. Compare fee structures, payout methods, minimum withdrawals and operating reliability through the mining pool directory. For pooled economics, use current inputs rather than applying a solo winner's payout to an ordinary month.
Hardware makers may benefit from increased interest after a public win, and a solo service may collect a fee when a participant finds a block. Neither fact demonstrates guaranteed profits for those businesses. The network's subsidy follows consensus rules; describing it as an advertising budget obscures how rewards are actually issued. For the buyer, the practical distinction remains whether the machine is a learning project, a discretionary hobby, or equipment expected to support a business.
Before ordering, set a budget that still works with zero solo payout, check the electrical supply and ventilation, and decide how you will monitor accepted hashrate. Write down what would make you stop, reduce hours or switch payout methods. Those decisions are more useful than choosing a machine because another owner appeared in a headline.
Key takeaways
Two valid blocks in one morning demonstrate that solo participants can succeed. They do not shorten your expected waiting time or validate a particular hardware purchase. Verify the reward, model the probability, and budget for the bills before treating a win as a reason to expand.
Planning a home mining setup? Talk to LeedMiner about the available electrical capacity, operating environment and payout approach. We can help match equipment to those constraints; no miner can guarantee your next solo block.
